Talking ASEAN on The RCEP and TPP 24 February 2014 Transpacific Partnership Indonesia ASEAN by Prof. Dr. Firmanzah
TRANS PASIFIC PARTENRSHIP INDONESIA ASEAN Prof. Firmanzah.,PhD Discussion-Habibie Center 24 th February 2015
Objectives of TPP To continue the trade and investment liberalization being undertaken by for example WTO To develop transparent and predictable rules and disciplines with adequate recourse in the event of any disputes To develop a more transparent and inclusive regulatory environment
Trans-Pacific Partnership Progress 2012
Existing FTA among TPP countries TPP-> Japan, USA, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, New Zealand, Australia, Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore & Vietnam All of TPP partners are APEC members, 4 members are from ASEAN
Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement *Trans Pacific Partnership* Traditional Areas: Market Access, Technical Barriers to Trade, Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, Rules of Origin, Customs Cooperation, Investment, Services, legal and Instututional. New FTA Issues: Government Procurement, Competition Policy, Intellectual Property, Labour and Environment.
TPP Challenges Economic Integration Domestic economic benefit and The domestic economic readiness On-Going Regional Agreement Regional Cooperation Economic Partnership (RCEP): ASEAN with Australia, China, India, Japan, south Korea, New Zealand Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with South Korea to boost two-way trade to US $ 100 billion by 2020 The existing Free Trade Agreement? (e.g., AFTA, AEC 2015, Indonesia-Japan Agreement) Government De-Regulation (What kind of De-Regulation and Is it a priority?) Domestic political issues regarding Free-Trade agreement
Why Malaysia Join TPP? (Is is the case of Indonesia?) To expand market access opportunities and build investors confidence. Currently, Malaysian products are globally standard and Malaysian companies are being global investors. To be global basis production for both domestic and MNC to supply TPP countries market. To build more structured cooperation with US, Canada, Mexico and Peru. Access greater market: 793 million people (TPP) > 29.5 million Malaysian people and US$ 27.5 trillion GDP > US$ 300 billion Malaysian GDP
Indonesia Keterhubungan ekonomi global
NAFTA Population: 445 million GDP: US$15.857 trillion FTA Canada Chile 1997 FTA : Chile Mexico 1999 FTA : USA Chile 2004 FTA : USA Singapore 2004 FTA : USA Australia 2005 FTA : Mexico Japan 2005 FTA : Chile Brunei NZ Singapore 2006 Japan- Mexico EPA (signed agreement) NAFTA U.S.A., Canada, Mexico FTAA (by 2005) Main Regional FTAs EU Population: 491 million GDP: US$ 14.38 trillion EU-MEXICO FTA expanding to Latin America under negotiation MERCOSUR Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay EU 25 countries ACP-EU Countries in Africa and the Caribbean (approx. 70 countries) CHINA Population: 1.330 billion GDP PPP: US$ 6.991 trillion expanding to Eastern Europe SAPTA Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka AFTA Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia JAPAN Population: 127 million GDP PPP: US$ 4.29 trillion Japan-Korea-China FTA (under negotiation) Japan-Korea FTA (under negotiation) Japan-Mexico EPA (signed agreement) ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership (AJCEP) Japan s Bilaterals: Japan-Singapore EPA Japan-Philippines EPA Japan-Thailand EPA Japan-Malaysia EPA Japan-Indonesia EPA India - ASEAN FTA China - ASEAN FTA Australia-New Zealand-ASEAN FTA Korea - ASEAN FTA ASEAN Population: 608 million GDP: US$ 3.431 billion
ASIA - ASEAN semakin strategis
Disparitas size ekonomi, sejarah, posisi geografis, struktur demografi, tingkat pendidikan, struktur politik akan berdampak pada variasi kebijakan moneter dan fiskal pada masing-masing negara di ASEAN. Ukuran ekonomi ASEAN 2011 sebesar U$ 3,3 triliun dimana Indonesia dengan porsi sebesar 40% (PDB terbesar Indonesia US$ 854 miliar dan PDB terkecil Laos sekitar US$ 8,3 miliar). Begitu juga jumlah penduduk ASEAN sebesar 608 juta jiwa dimana 39% diantaranya berada di Indonesia. PROFIL ASEAN
Indonesia Update Population 2014 257,5 million 60-65% productive age (15-60) Global Competitiveness Ranking 2014 (2010 ) 34 (54) GDP 2014 GDP per capita 2014 10.547,2 trillion IDR 41,81 million IDR GDP Growth 2014 5,02% GDP Growth by sector Transortation & Communication (9,8 %) Trade, hotels & restaurant (8,1 %) Construction (7,5 %) Services (5,24 %) Financial real estate (7,15%) Electricity, gas (6,4%) Manufacture (5,73%) Mining (1,49%) Agriculture (3,97%) GDP Structure by sector Transortation & Communication (6,6 %) Trade, hotels & restaurant (13,90%) Construction (10,45 %) Services (10,78%) Financial real estate (7,26%) Electricity, gas (0,79%) Manufacture (23,94%) Mining (11,78%) Agriculture (14,44%) GDP Structure by expenditure Private Consumption Expenditure (54,56 %) Government Consumption Expend. (8,890%) Gross Domestic Fixed Capt. Formation (33,16%) Export Import (24,26 %) (25,81 %) Statistics Discrepantion (2,79%) Change in stock (2,16%) Foreign reserves February 2015 Poverty rate - September 2015 US $ 114,2 billion 10,96 % (27,73 million)
Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-ASEAN Tahun 2012 (dlm USD Milliar) 31.25 31.71 Ekspor nonmigas Impor nonmigas 62.96 Total Tahun 2012 defisit perdagangan nonmigas USD 0.46 milliar, Sementara di 2011 neraca perdagangan Indonesia-ASEAN masih surplus 3,5 miliar dollar AS. Homogenitas produk di kawasan ASEAN merupakan salah satu alasan selain tekanan global. Impor Indonesia dari ASEAN juga meningkat terkait barang modal dan bahan baku seperti suku cadang dari Thailand, juga barang konsumsi seperti gula dan minyak goreng dari Malysia.
The archipelago economy: Unleashing Indonesia s potential McKinsey Global Institute,2012
The growing of middle class.
Kinerja Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia (defisit transakksi berjalan terjadi sejak Q4-2011 s/d sekarang) KETERANGAN Bank Indonesia 2010 I. Transaksi Berjalan A. Barang 5,144.29 31,002.66 1,685.08 33,825.00-24,418.12 8,679.52-29,114.92 5,833.23-26,232.53 6,902.19 B. Jasa - jasa -9,790.51-9,803.27-10,564.20-12,071.65-10,532.43 C. Pendapatan Primer -20,698.16-26,547.17-26,627.83-27,054.65-27,821.90 D. Pendapatan Sekunder 4,630.30 4,210.51 4,094.38 4,178.15 5,219.62 II. Transaksi Modal 49.85 32.89 50.57 45.29 26.57 - Penerimaan 49.85 32.89 50.57 45.29 26.57 - Pembayaran - - - - - III. Transaksi Finansial ² 26,476.13 13,603.33 24,858.06 21,964.42 43,559.18 - Aset -7,294.22-16,453.46-17,971.27-15,467.05-12,038.82 - Kewajiban 33,770.35 30,056.80 42,829.33 37,431.47 55,598.00 1. Investasi Langsung 11,106.33 11,528.39 13,716.23 12,295.44 15,265.65 2. Investasi Portofolio 13,201.98 3,806.37 9,206.43 10,874.79 25,801.87 3. Derivatif Finansial -94.39 69.35 12.99-334.36-213.29 4. Investasi Lainnya 2,262.20-1,800.78 1,922.42-871.45 2,704.95 IV. Total (I + II + III) 31,670.26 15,321.30 490.50-7,105.20 17,353.22 V. Selisih Perhitungan Bersih -1,327.16-3,464.68-275.38-219.52-2,104.63 VI. Neraca Keseluruhan (IV + V) 30,343.10 11,856.61 215.12-7,324.73 15,248.59 - Posisi Cadangan Devisa 96,206.83 110,123.00 112,781.03 99,386.71 111,861.60 - Transaksi Berjalan (% PDB) 0.72 0.20-2.78-3.18-2.95 2011 2012 2013 2014
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Terima Kasih Prof. Firmanzah.,PhD