ABSTRACT. Keywords: Global economic crisis, Altman Z-score method, Ohlson method. vii. Universitas Kristen Marantha

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1 ABSTRACT The main purpose of this research is to compare two different methods of bankcrupty prediction which applied at PT Bumi Resources Tbk. The company was chosen because it could stand against global economic crisis in The first method is Altman Z-score which is the most common method to predict banckruptcy. The second is Ohlson method which is seldom or even never used to predict bankruptcy. In this case, these methods used to assess the investment at PT Bumi Resources Tbk. and help investors decided whether investment should be made or not. The prediction result is the company will not bankrupt. So, investment should be made by investors. Keywords: Global economic crisis, Altman Z-score method, Ohlson method. vii

2 ABSTRAK Krisis global tahun 2008 telah meyebabkan banyak perusahaan bangkrut, sehingga iklim investasi Indonesia melemah. Investor mulai bermain aman agar tidak mengalami kerugian. PT Bumi Resources Tbk. merupakan salah satu perusahaan tambang batu bara yang terkena dampak krisis global tahun Sebagai salah satu perusahaan yang masih bertahan, maka investasi pada PT Bumi Resources Tbk. harus dipikirkan secara matang. Untuk menentukan kelayakan investasi dapat digunakan metode prediksi kebangkrutan. Metode Altman Z-score adalah metode yang paling umum digunakan, sedangkan metode Ohlson masih asing bagi investor. Penggunaan kedua metode ditujukan untuk menguatkan hasil analisis. Analisis dengan kedua metode memberikan hasil bahwa investasi pada PT Bumi Resources Tbk. layak dilakukan. Kata-kata kunci: Krisis global, Metode Altman Z-score, Metode Ohlson. viii

3 DAFTAR ISI HALAMA JUDUL... i HALAMA PE GESAHA... ii PER YATAA ORISI ALITAS LAPORA PE ELITIA... iii PER YATAA PUBLIKASI LAPORA PE ELITIA... iv KATA PE GA TAR... v ABSTRACT... vii ABSTRAK... viii DAFTAR ISI... ix DAFTAR GAMBAR... xii DAFTAR TABEL... xiii DAFTAR LAMPIRA... xv BAB I PE DAHULUA 1.1 Latar Belakang Identifikasi Masalah Maksud dan Tujuan Penelitian Kegunaan Penelitian... 6 BAB II KAJIA PUSTAKA DA KERA GKA PEMIKIRA 2.1 Laporan Keuangan Definisi Laporan Keuangan Kegunaan Laporan Keuangan Sifat Laporan Keuangan Bentuk-bentuk Laporan Keuangan Pengguna Laporan Keuangan Keterbatasan Laporan Keuangan Analisa Laporan Keuangan ix

4 2.2.1 Definisi Analisa Laporan Keuangan Kegunaan Analisa Laporan Keuangan Metode Pembanding Analisa Laporan Keuangan Jenis Rasio Keuangan Kebangkrutan Definisi Kebangkrutan Jenis Kebangkrutan Penyebab Kebangkrutan Prediksi Kebangkrutan Manfaat Prediksi Kebangkrutan Metode Altman Z-score Keterangan Variabel Altman Z-score Metode Ohlson Penjelasan Variabel Metode Ohlson Alternatif Perbaikan Kesulitan Keuangan Investasi Definisi Investasi Kategori Investasi Tipe-tipe Investasi Keuangan Proses Investasi Strategi Investasi Kerangka Pemikiran BAB III METODE PE ELITIA x

5 3.1 Objek Penelitian Visi Perusahaan Misi Perusahaan Filosofi Perusahaan Sejarah Singkat Perusahaan Kepemilikan Saham Perusahaan Jenis Penelitian Definisi Operasional Variabel Teknik Pengumpulan Data Analisis Data BAB IV HASIL PE ELITIA DA PEMBAHASA 4.1 Analisis Metode Altman Z-score Analisis Metode Ohlson Perbandingan Metode Altman Z-score dan Metode Ohlson Analisis Kelayakan Investasi PT Bumi Resources Tbk BAB V SIMPULA DA SARA 5.1 Simpulan Saran DAFTAR PUSTAKA LAMPIRA DAFTAR RIWAYAT HIDUP PE ULIS (CURRICULUM VITAE) xi

6 xii

7 DAFTAR GAMBAR Halaman Gambar 2.1 Jenis Rasio Keuangan Gambar 2.2 Kerangka Pemikiran xiii

8 DAFTAR TABEL Halaman Tabel 2.1 Kriteria Interpretasi Altman Z-Score (1968) Tabel 2.2 Kriteria Interpretasi Altman Z-Score (1983) Tabel 2.3 Kriteria Hasil Perhitungan Model Ohlson Tabel 3.1 Sejarah Singkat PT Bumi Resources Tbk Tabel 3.2 Kepemilikan Saham PT Bumi Resources Tbk Tabel 3.3 Definisi Opersional Variabel Independen Altman Z-score Tabel 3.4 Definisi Opersional Variabel Dependen Altman Z-score Tabel 3.5 Definisi Operasional Variabel Independen Metode Ohlson Tabel 3.6 Definisi Operasional Variabel Dependen Metode Ohlson Tabel 3.7 Kriteria Interpretasi Altman Z-Score (1983) Tabel 3.8 Kriteria Hasil Perhitungan Model Ohlson Tabel 4.1 Kriteria Interpretasi Altman Z-Score (1983) Tabel 4.2 Perhitungan Variabel Metode Altman Z-score Tabel 4.3 Perhitungan Z-score PT Bumi Resources Tbk Tabel 4.4 Kriteria Interpretasi Z-score PT Bumi Resources Tbk Tabel 4.5 Persentase Perubahan Z-score PT Bumi Resources Tbk Tabel 4.6 Kriteria Hasil Perhitungan Model Ohlson Tabel 4.7 Perhitungan Variabel Metode Ohlson Tabel 4.8 Perhitungan Nilai P Metode Ohlson Tabel 4.9 Kriteria Interpretasi Nilai P Metode Ohlson xiv

9 Tabel 4.10 Persentase Perubahan Nilai P Tabel 4.11 Perbandingan Hasil Altman Z-score dan Ohlson xv

10 DAFTAR LAMPIRA Halaman Lampiran Laporan Keuangan PT Bumi Resources Tbk xvi

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