Wait and See. 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate Unchanged at 5.75%

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1 WEEKLY REPORT D E B T R E S E A R C H 31 OCT 2018 Indonesia s Sovereign Rating S & P Moody s Fitch BBB- Baa2 BBB Key Market Indicator as of 29-Oct-18 BI 7-Day RR Rate 5.75% JCI 5,755 IDR Inflation (y-o-y)-sep % Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov t Bonds as of 17-Oct-18 IDR 2,291.0 bn Corp Bonds as of 30-Sep-18 IDR bn Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds IDR tn Corporate Bonds IDR 4.30 tn Benchmark Yield as of 29-Oct-18 FR0063 (5 year) 8.385% FR0064 (10 year) 8.609% FR0065 (15 year) 8.798% FR0075 (20 year) 9.020% Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM Government Bond Indices as of 29-Oct-18 Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 8.64% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) Wait and See 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate Unchanged at 5.75% At the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors meeting on 23 October 2018, Bank Indonesia decided to maintain its 7-day Reverse Repo Rate (BI7D RRR) at 5.75%. This decision is consistent with efforts to keep the deficit within a safe limit and maintain the attractiveness of the domestic financial market in an effort to bolster Indonesia s external resilience amid high global uncertainty. In addition, there are several reasons of 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate unchanged. First, slower global economic growth in the third quarter of 2018 such as China which grew only by 6.5%, lower than the previous period of 6.7%; while European zone economic growth rose by 1,7% compared to 2.2% in the period before. Second, Indonesia s economic growth in the third quarter of 2018 expected to be lower than previous period mainly due to lower net exports in the third quarter which recorded minus USD2.7 billion. Even though the rupiah still depreciated but volatility remained stable. Bank Indonesia 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate tetap di level 5,75% Pada pertemuan dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia pada 23 Oktober 2018, Bank Indonesia memutuskan untuk mempertahankan BI 7-day Reverse Repo Rate (BI7D RRR) sebesar 5,75%. Keputusan ini konsisten dengan upaya untuk menurunkan defisit transaksi berjalan ke dalam batas aman serta mempertahankan daya tarik pasar keuangan domestik sehingga dapat semakin memperkuat ketahanan eksternal Indonesia di tengah ketidakpastian global yang masih tinggi. Selain itu, terdapat beberapa hal lain yang menjadi pertimbangan dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia untuk mempertahankan 7D RRR. Pertama, pertumbuhan ekonomi global yang melambat di kuartal ketiga 2018 seperti China yang tumbuh hanya sebesar 6,5%, lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan periode sebelumnya yaitu sebesar 6,7%; sementara itu perekonomian zona Eropa tumbuh sebesar 1,7% atau lebih rendah dari periode sebelumnya yaitu sebesar 2,2%. Kedua, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia triwulan III 2018 diperkirakan melambat dibandingkan periode sebelumnya, hal ini terutama dipengaruhi oleh ekspor neto yang lebih rendah di kuartal ketiga yaitu sebesar minus USD2,7 miliar. Meskipun nilai tukar Rupiah masih mengalami depresiasi namun volatilitas terjaga. Calendar of Event 09-Nov-18 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves - IOER rate (Survey :NA; Prior : 1.95%) 07-Nov-18 Japan New Composite Index of Business Cycle Indicators Coincident Index (Survey :NA; Prior : 117.5) 08-Nov-18 Germany Trade Balance EUR NSA (Survey :16.2b; Prior : 16.5b) Exhibit 1. 7D RRR 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Analysts Rifki Rizal (62 21) ext rifkir@danareksa.com 14-Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb-18 Source: Bank Indonesia 22-Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct-18 Laras Nerpatari Suilyas (62 21) ext laras.nerpatari@danareksa.com Please read important disclosure at the back of this report Bloomberg Ticker: DFMJ

2 Indonesian Government bond yields declined, in line with the declines in US Treasury yields Based on the Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index, the Government bond yield was recorded at 8.66% as of 26 October 2018, or slightly down compared to the closing date on 19 October 2018 of 8.68%. By contrast, the Indon CDS increased by 10bps for the 5-year CDS Indon and by 12bps for the 10-year Indon CDS. Meanwhile, even though the rupiah depreciated by 0.20% relative to the USD, the volatility (as calculated from the weekly average) was lower last week (at 25 points) than in the previous week (32 points). Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined by 12 bps from 3.20% on 19 October 2018 to 3.08% on 26 October Penurunan yield obligasi Pemerintah Indonesia, sejalan dengan penurunan yield US treasury Berdasarkan Danareksa Government Yield Index, yield obligasi Pemerintah tercatat sebesar 8,66% per 26 Oktober 2018, atau sedikit menurun dibandingkan dengan penutupan tanggal 19 Oktober 2018 sebesar 8,68%. Di sisi lain, terdapat peningkatan Indon CDS yang meningkat sebesar 10bps untuk Indon CDS 5-tahun dan sebesar 12bps untuk Indon CDS 10-tahun. Sementara itu, meskipun Rupiah terhadap USD melemah tipis 0,20%, namun volatilitas yang dihitung dari rata-rata mingguan pada minggu lalu tercatat lebih rendah yaitu sebesar 25poin dibandingkan dengan volatilitas minggu lalu yaitu sebesar 32poin. Sedangkan US treasury 10-tahun mengalami penurunan sebesar 12bps dari 3,20% di 19 Oktober 2018 menjadi 3,08% di 26 Oktober Exhibit 2. CDS 5-yr Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa estimates Exhibit 3. CDS 10-yr Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct-18 Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa estimates 2

3 Exhibit 4. UST 10-yr Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa estimates Exhibit 5. USD IDR Dec Jan Jan-18 9-Feb Feb-18 9-Mar Mar-18 6-Apr Apr-18 4-May May-18 1-Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug-18 7-Sep Sep-18 5-Oct Oct Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep-18 UST 10-yr (%) Slope 2-yr and 10-yr (bps) USD IDR Volatility (point) Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa estimates Government bonds auction The Government held the last SUN auction on 23 October 2018 for the SPN , SPN , FR0077, FR0078, FR065, FR075 and FR0076 series. At last week s auction, total incoming bids were recorded at IDR47.55 trillion. This amount was higher than in the previous SUN auction held on 9 October 2018 with incoming bids of IDR41.35 trillion. Meanwhile, the total winning bids reached IDR20 trillion or equivalent to the maximum target of winning bids. The largest amount of incoming bids was for the FR0077 series, which amounted to IDR14.17 trillion followed by FR0078 amounting to IDR11.39 trillion, while the largest winning bid was for the FR0078 series (IDR 6.25 trillion) followed by FR0077 (IDR4.10 trillion). Details of the auction results are contained in Exhibit 5. Lelang obligasi Pemerintah Pemerintah mengadakan lelang SUN terakhir pada tanggal 23 Oktober 2018 untuk seri SPN , SPN , FR0077, FR0078, FR065, FR075 dan FR0076. Pada lelang minggu lalu, total penawaran yang masuk tercatat sebesar Rp47,55 triliun. Jumlah ini meningkat dibanding lelang SUN sebelumnya pada tanggal 9 Oktober 2018 yang memiliki penawaran masuk sebesar Rp41,35 triliun. Sementara itu, total penawaran yang dimenangkan adalah sebesar Rp20 triliun, atau merupakan target maksimal lelang yang dimenangkan. Jumlah penawaran masuk yang terbesar yaitu seri FR0077 yaitu sebesar Rp14,17 triliun diikuti oleh FR0078 sebesar Rp11,39 triliun, sedangkan penawaran yang dimenangkan terbesar adalah untuk seri FR0078 yaitu sebesar Rp6,25 triliun, diikuti oleh FR0077 yaitu sebesar Rp4,10 triliun. Rincian hasil lelang tersebut terdapat dalam Exhibit 5. 3

4 Exhibit 6. Auction Result 23 October 2018 Source: DJPPR SPN SPN FR0077 FR0078 FR0065 FR0075 FR0076 Maturity date 24-Jan Jul May May May May May-38 Incoming bids (IDR tn) % Winning bids (IDR tn) % Bid to cover ratio %

5 APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading October 2018 Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Last Freq Vol Yield Tenor Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Class Duration Price 26-Oct-18 SPN Nov < 1yr - 22-Oct-18 SPN Nov < 1yr - 22-Oct-18 SPN Nov < 1yr - 26-Oct-18 SPN Dec < 1yr - 22-Oct-18 SPN Jan < 1yr - 25-Oct-18 SPN Feb < 1yr - 26-Oct-18 SR Mar < 1yr - 22-Oct-18 SPN Mar < 1yr - 26-Oct-18 FR Apr , < 1yr Oct-18 PBS May < 1yr Oct-18 SPN Jul < 1yr - 26-Oct-18 FR Sep < 1yr Oct-18 ORI Oct < 1yr - 26-Oct-18 SR Mar yr - 5yr - 25-Oct-18 PBS Mar yr - 5yr Oct-18 PBS Sep yr - 5yr Oct-18 ORI Oct yr - 5yr - 26-Oct-18 FR Nov yr - 5yr Oct-18 SR Mar yr - 5yr - 26-Oct-18 PBS May yr - 5yr Oct-18 FR Jun yr - 5yr Oct-18 FR Jul yr - 5yr Oct-18 PBS Jan yr - 5yr Oct-18 FR May , yr - 5yr Oct-18 FR Jun yr - 5yr Oct-18 FR Jul yr - 5yr Oct-18 FR May , yr - 5yr Oct-18 FR Jul yr - 5yr Oct-18 PBS Aug yr - 5yr Oct-18 FR Aug yr - 5yr Oct-18 PBS Sep yr - 5yr Oct-18 FR Mar , yr - 10yr Oct-18 FR May , yr - 10yr Oct-18 FR Sep yr - 10yr Oct-18 FR Sep yr - 10yr Oct-18 FR Sep , yr - 10yr Oct-18 FR Sep yr - 10yr Oct-18 FR May , yr - 10yr Oct-18 FR Jul yr - 10yr Oct-18 FR Feb yr - 10yr Oct-18 FR May , yr - 10yr Oct-18 FR Mar > 10yr Oct-18 FR May , > 10yr Oct-18 FR Aug > 10yr Oct-18 FR May > 10yr Oct-18 FR Jul > 10yr Oct-18 PBS Nov > 10yr Oct-18 FR Jun > 10yr Oct-18 FR Aug > 10yr 7.98 Sources: IDX, Danareksa Estimates 5

6 APPENDICES Appendix 2. Government Bonds Trading October 2018 (cont d) Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Last Freq Vol Yield Tenor Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Class Duration Price 26-Oct-18 FR May , > 10yr Oct-18 FR Mar > 10yr Oct-18 FR May , > 10yr Oct-18 PBS Feb > 10yr Oct-18 FR May > 10yr Oct-18 FR May , > 10yr Oct-18 FR Jul > 10yr Oct-18 FR May > 10yr Oct-18 FR Apr > 10yr Oct-18 FR Feb > 10yr Oct-18 FR May > 10yr Sources: IDX, Danareksa Estimates 6

7 APPENDICES Appendix 3. Corporate Bonds Trading October 2018 Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Freq Vol Yield Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Duration Price 24-Oct-18 IMFI02BCN2 06-Nov ida Oct-18 TAFS01BCN3 06-Nov AAA(idn) Oct-18 BIIF01ACN1 12-Nov AA+(idn) Oct-18 SMII01ACN2 25-Nov idaaa Oct-18 BNII01SBCN1 06-Dec idaa Oct-18 SMRA01CN1 11-Dec ida Oct-18 WOMF02ACN3 16-Dec AA-(idn) Oct-18 TUFI02ACN1 18-Dec idaa Oct-18 WOMF01BCN4 22-Dec AA-(idn) Oct-18 BEXI02BCN7 19-Feb idaaa Oct-18 IMFI03ACN2 25-Feb ida Oct-18 IMFI02BCN3 16-Mar ida Oct-18 ADMF04ACN2 01-Apr idaaa Oct-18 CTRR01B 02-Apr A+(idn) Oct-18 FIFA02BCN3 05-Apr idaaa Oct-18 SIAISA01 05-Apr idd(sy) Oct-18 AISA01 05-Apr idd Oct-18 BIIF01ACN2 13-Apr AA+(idn) Oct-18 WOMF02ACN4 16-Apr AA-(idn) Oct-18 NISP02ACN4 20-Apr idaaa Oct-18 FIFA03ACN3 21-Apr idaaa Oct-18 IMFI02CCN1 24-Apr ida Oct-18 TRAC01ACN1 07-May AA-(idn) Oct-18 MYOR04 09-May idaa Oct-18 ASDF03BCN1 11-May AAA(idn) Oct-18 ISAT02ACN3 13-May idaaa Oct-18 BAFI02A 20-May idaa Oct-18 PJAA01ACN2 23-May idaa Oct-18 BBRI01BCN3 25-May idaaa Oct-18 IMFI03ACN3 28-May ida Oct-18 TAFS02BCN1 01-Jun AAA(idn) Oct-18 TUFI02ACN2 01-Jun idaa Oct-18 BBIA01ACN2 03-Jun AAA(idn) Oct-18 APLN01CN2 06-Jun ida Oct-18 SANF02BCN1 09-Jun idaa Oct-18 WSKT02CN1 10-Jun ida Oct-18 INDF07 13-Jun idaa Oct-18 SMBEXI01ACN1 16-Jun idaaa(sy) Oct-18 WOMF02ACN5 18-Jun AA-(idn) Oct-18 BSBR02SB 26-Jun ida Oct-18 BVIC02SB 27-Jun idbbb Oct-18 SIISAT05 27-Jun idaaa(sy) Oct-18 ISAT08A 27-Jun idaaa Oct-18 DILD02A 29-Jun ida Oct-18 BSDE01CCN1 04-Jul idaa Oct-18 MFIN03ACN1 10-Jul ida Oct-18 ADMF04ACN3 26-Aug idaaa Oct-18 ISAT01BCN4 02-Sep idaaa Oct-18 BEXI04ACN2 15-Sep idaaa Sources: IDX, Danareksa Estimates 7

8 APPENDICES Appendix 4. Corporate Bonds Trading October 2018 (cont d) Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Freq Vol Yield Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Duration Price 24-Oct-18 MAPI01BCN3 19-Sep idaa Oct-18 JSMR01CN2T 19-Sep idaa Oct-18 FIFA02BCN4 27-Sep idaaa Oct-18 BNGA02ACN4 30-Sep idaaa Oct-18 FIFA03ACN4 05-Oct AAA(idn) Oct-18 TUFI03ACN1 07-Oct idaa Oct-18 SMRA01CN2 10-Oct ida Oct-18 SISMRA01CN2 10-Oct ida+(sy) Oct-18 ASDF03BCN2 18-Oct AAA(idn) Oct-18 SIEXCL02ACN1 26-Oct AAA(idn) Oct-18 EXCL01ACN1 26-Oct AAA(idn) Oct-18 TBIG03CN2 28-Oct AA-(idn) Oct-18 SMFP04ACN6 29-Oct idaaa Oct-18 BNII01SBCN2 31-Oct idaa Oct-18 BIIF01ACN3 03-Nov AA+(idn) Oct-18 BFIN03BCN3 09-Nov AA-(idn) Oct-18 BBRI02BCN1 01-Dec idaaa Oct-18 IMPC01A 02-Dec ida Oct-18 MEDC02ACN3 21-Dec ida Oct-18 PPLN11B 12-Jan idaaa Oct-18 TAFS02BCN2 14-Feb AAA(idn) Oct-18 SMFP03BCN7 02-Mar idaaa Oct-18 IMFI02CCN3 16-Mar ida Oct-18 BBIA01C 01-Apr AAA(idn) Oct-18 BBRI02BCN2 11-Apr idaaa Oct-18 TBIG02CN2 21-Apr AA-(idn) Oct-18 PPGD02CCN3 07-May idaaa Oct-18 AMRT02CN1 23-May AA-(idn) Oct-18 BBTN14 11-Jun idaa Oct-18 BVIC03SB 27-Jun idbbb Oct-18 IMFI03BCN1 07-Jul ida Oct-18 PPGD02DCN1 09-Jul idaaa Oct-18 BMTP01A 11-Jul AA(idn) Oct-18 CSUL01B 11-Jul ida Oct-18 BBTN03ACN1 13-Jul idaa Oct-18 ADMF03CCN2 25-Aug idaaa Oct-18 TINS01ACN1 28-Sep ida Oct-18 FIFA03BCN2 10-Oct idaaa Oct-18 BIIF01ACN4 15-Nov AA+(idn) Oct-18 SMRA02CN2 28-Nov ida Oct-18 WOMF02BCN3 06-Dec AA-(idn) Oct-18 ADMF04BCN1 12-Dec idaaa Oct-18 BNGA02SB 23-Dec AA(idn) Oct-18 BBRI01CCN2 04-Feb idaaa Oct-18 BEXI03ACN6 14-Feb idaaa Oct-18 IMFI03BCN2 15-Feb ida Oct-18 WSKT03ACN2 23-Feb A-(idn) Oct-18 FIFA03BCN3 11-Apr idaaa Oct-18 IMFI03BCN3 18-May ida Oct-18 ASDF04BCN1 25-May AAA(idn) Oct-18 TUFI02BCN2 01-Jun idaa Sources: IDX, Danareksa Estimates 8

9 APPENDICES Appendix 5. Corporate Bonds Trading October 2018 (cont d) Last Trade Bonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Rating Last Freq Vol Yield Modified Data Done (IDR bn) Duration Price 25-Oct-18 BPFI02CN1 25-Jun idbbb Oct-18 TBIG03CN1 05-Jul AA-(idn) Oct-18 GNSMII01ACN1 06-Jul idaaa Oct-18 SIAISA02 19-Jul idd(sy) Oct-18 ADMF04CCN3 16-Aug idaaa Oct-18 JLBS01A 20-Sep ida Oct-18 FIFA03BCN4 25-Sep AAA(idn) Oct-18 WSKT03ACN3 28-Sep ida Oct-18 BJBR01ACN2 28-Sep idaa Oct-18 EXCL01BCN1 16-Oct AAA(idn) Oct-18 ANTM01BCN1 14-Dec idbbb Oct-18 SPSBTN01 07-Mar idaaa Oct-18 BBTN01CN1 05-Jun idaa Oct-18 TLKM01ACN1 23-Jun idaaa Oct-18 SIBMTR01ACN1 07-Jul ida+(sy) Oct-18 SIPPLN02ACN1 11-Jul idaaa(sy) Oct-18 BVIC01CN1 11-Jul ida Oct-18 BBTN03BCN1 13-Jul idaa Oct-18 BBRI02BCN3 24-Aug idaaa Oct-18 TINS01BCN1 28-Sep ida Oct-18 PPGD03CCN1 03-Oct idaaa Oct-18 PIHC01BCN2 09-Nov AAA(idn) Oct-18 BACA02SB 15-Jan idbbb Oct-18 IMFI03CCN2 15-Feb ida Oct-18 BBRI02ACN4 21-Feb idaaa Oct-18 WSKT03BCN2 23-Feb A-(idn) Oct-18 PNMP02BCN2 13-Apr ida Oct-18 MYOR01CN3 24-Apr idaa Oct-18 ISAT02CCN3 03-May idaaa Oct-18 SWMEDP01B 04-Jul ida(sy) Oct-18 ADMF04ECN3 16-Aug idaaa Oct-18 JLBS01B 20-Sep ida Oct-18 BMRI01CN3 21-Sep idaaa Oct-18 SMLPPI01B 10-Oct ida+(sy) Oct-18 PNBN02SBCN2 17-Mar ida Oct-18 BMTR01CCN1 07-Jul ida Oct-18 BBIA01SBCN2 17-Oct AA(idn) Oct-18 BBRI02BCN4 21-Feb idaaa Oct-18 TPIA01CCN2 01-Mar idaa Oct-18 BMRI01CCN1 30-Sep idaaa Oct-18 APAI01C 22-Nov idaaa Oct-18 BBRI02DCN2 11-Apr idaaa Oct-18 SIPPLN02BCN1 11-Jul idaaa(sy) Oct-18 PPLN02ECN3 22-Feb idaaa Sources: IDX, Danareksa Estimates 9

10 Managing Director Institutional Capital Market Budi Susanto ext Telp No Fax No Head of Debt Research Amir A. Dalimunthe ext FIXED INCOME TEAM DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Credit Analysts Market Analyst Arif Sentanu Rifki Rizal ext ext Laras Nerpatari Suilyas Production & Database Management ext Eka Nuraini ext Lanni Palmitha Rosetty Sianipar ext Telp No Fax No /25 Head of Debt Capital Market Anung Rony Hascaryo ext DEBT CAPITAL MARKET TEAM Debt Sales Debt Brokerage Setyo H. Purnomo Dody Mudjiyanto ext ext Rina Rimawati D Citra Isramij P. rina@danareksa.com ext citra.isramij@danareksa.com ext Rachmat Eko Putranto Putrika Mayadipta rachmat.putranto@danareksa.com ext putrikam@danareksa.com ext Talita Wardhana Bachtiar talita.bachtiar@danareksa.co.id ext Smitha Tiara Hapsari smitha.hapsari@danareksa.co.id ext Debt Trading & Alternative Product Indra Figrachanda indraf@danareksa.co.id ext DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice. 10