Indonesia Economy : Challenge and Opportunity

Transkripsi

1 Indonesia Economy : Challenge and Opportunity NUNUNG NURYARTONO Go-Live Round Table Discussion Adelaide 7 November Outline A Fact on Indonesia Economy Problem and Challenge Opportunity Discussion 1

2 Indonesia : current and future Sources: McKinsey Global Institute (2012) GDP Growth : tend to slow down GDP Growth Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 11 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 12 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 13 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 14 Q1 GDP Poly. (GDP) Gini Ratio Export and Import

3 Indonesian s Economy Structure ,35 N 25,04 36,73 24,67 26,08 40,27 24,30 38,12 28,65 44,97 Sektor Dominan Pertanian Pertambangan & Penggalian Industri Pengolahan Perdagangan, Hotel Keuangan & Persewaan Jasa-Jasa 32,33 32,33 26,92 33,81 28,81 28,98 41,62 22,45 Sumber : Nuryartono (2014), data diolah dari informasi BPS 31,99 43,20 38,42 36,00 40,27 22,36 36,10 60, Kilometers 2012 Source : Nuryartono (2014), 3

4 Java Island is an engine of growth Share Size of Economy 2005 dan 2012 (persen) Sumatra Jawa Sulawesi Bali NTT dan NTB Kalimantan Papua dan Maluku Poverty map in rural areas: 2013 Sumber : Nuryartono (2014), peta tematik diolah dari BPS Poor people (%) Papua Barat Papua Maluku Utara 9.20 Maluku Sulawesi Tenggara Sulawesi Barat Sulawesi Selatan Sulawesi Tengah Gorontalo Sulawesi Utara Kalimantan Timur Kalimantan Selatan 5.50 Kalimantan Tengah 6.45 Kalimantan Barat Nusa Tenggara Timur Nusa Tenggara Barat Bali 5.00 Jawa Timur DI Yogyakarta Jawa Tengah Banten 7.22 Jawa Barat DKI Jakarta 0.00 Lampung Bengkulu Kepulauan Bangka 6.97 Sumatera Selatan Jambi 7.54 Kepulauan Riau 9.21 Riau 9.55 Sumatera Barat 8.30 Sumatera Utara Aceh

5 Persen (%) Aceh Sumut Sumbar Riau Jambi Sumsel Bengkulu Lampung Jakarta Jabar Jateng DIY Jatim Bali NTB NTT Kalbar Kalteng Kalsel Kaltim Sulut Sulteng Sulsel Sultra Maluku Papua 11/7/2014 Increasing Inequality among the region Infrastructure Development an comparison Infrastructure index Source : Prasetyo, Nuryartono

6 Challenges Human resources quality : IPM (121); compare to Malaysia (64), Thailand (103), Philippina (114), dan Singapura (18) (UNDP, 2013) Competitivenes Index : 38; compare to Singapura (2), Malaysia (24), Thailand (37) (World Economic Forum, 2014) Asean Economics Community in 2015; Winner or looser ADB report : in Asia Region potentially 11 countries as fast growing emerging economies will be trapped in middle income trap : Indonesia is one of that. Role of research & innovation In 2013 predicted GDP Indonesia USD 1,283 Billion with around 0.25% from GDP for R&D Expenditures InterCAFE Source: The International World Bank Center for Aplied Finance and Economics 6

7 Opportunity Fiscal Policy reform Demography bonus New Government play a role Thank you very much.. 7

8 Government Expenditure 350, , , , , , , Belanja Pegawai 2. Belanja Barang 3. Belanja Modal 4. Pembayaran Bunga Utang 5 a. Subsidi Energi 5 b. Subsidi Non Energi 6. Belanja Hibah 7. Bantuan Sosial 8. Belanja Lain-Lain Who s get what from fuel subsidy? 8

9 Meningkatkan kualitas hidup manusia Indonesia VISI-MISI AGENDA PRIORITAS EKONOMI Meningkatkan produktivitas rakyat dan daya saing di pasar internasional PROGRAM AKSI Mewujudkan kemandirian ekonomi dengan menggerakan sektor-sektor strategis ekonomi domestik 9