Statistik Bisnis 2. Week 4 Fundamental of Hypothesis Testing Methodology

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1 Statistik Bisnis 2 Week 4 Fundamental of Hypothesis Testing Methodology

2 ONE-TAIL TESTS

3 One-Tail Tests In many cases, the alternative hypothesis focuses on a particular direction H 0 : μ 3 H 1 : μ < 3 H 0 : μ 3 H 1 : μ > 3 This is a lower-tail test since the alternative hypothesis is focused on the lower tail below the mean of 3 This is an upper-tail test since the alternative hypothesis is focused on the upper tail above the mean of 3

4 Lower-Tail Tests There is only one critical value, since the rejection area is in only one tail a H 0 : μ 3 H 1 : μ < 3 Reject H 0 Do not reject H 0 -Z α or -t α 0 μ Z or t X Critical value

5 Upper-Tail Tests There is only one critical value, since the rejection area is in only one tail H 0 : μ 3 H 1 : μ > 3 a Z or t _ X Do not reject H 0 0 μ Z α or t α Reject H 0 Critical value

6 Example: Upper-Tail t Test for Mean ( unknown) A phone industry manager thinks that customer monthly cell phone bills have increased, and now average over $52 per month. The company wishes to test this claim. (Assume a normal population) Form hypothesis test: H 0 : μ 52 H 1 : μ > 52 the average is not over $52 per month the average is greater than $52 per month (i.e., sufficient evidence exists to support the manager s claim)

7 Example: Find Rejection Region Suppose that a = 0.10 is chosen for this test and n = 25. Find the rejection region: Reject H 0 (continued) a = 0.10 Do not reject H Reject H 0 Reject H 0 if t STAT > 1.318

8 Example: Test Statistic Obtain sample and compute the test statistic Suppose a sample is taken with the following results: n = 25, X = 53.1, and S = 10 Then the test statistic is: (continued) t STAT X S μ n 25

9 Example: Decision (continued) Reach a decision and interpret the result: Reject H 0 a = 0.10 Do not reject H t STAT = 0.55 Reject H 0 Do not reject H 0 since t STAT = there is not sufficient evidence that the mean bill is over $52

10 Example: Utilizing The p-value for The Test Calculate the p-value and compare to a (p-value below calculated using excel spreadsheet on next page) p-value =.2937 Reject H 0 a =.10 0 Do not reject H t STAT =.55 Reject H 0 Do not reject H 0 since p-value =.2937 > a =.10

11 HYPOTHESIS TESTS FOR PROPORTIONS

12 Hypothesis Tests for Proportions Involves categorical variables Two possible outcomes Possesses characteristic of interest Does not possess characteristic of interest Fraction or proportion of the population in the category of interest is denoted by π

13 Proportions Sample proportion in the category of interest is denoted by p (continued) p X n number in category of samplesize interestin sample When both nπ and n(1-π) are at least 5, p can be approximated by a normal distribution with mean and standard deviation μp σ p (1 ) n

14 Hypothesis Tests for Proportions The sampling distribution of p is approximately normal, so the test statistic is a Z STAT value: Hypothesis Tests for p Z STAT p π π(1 π) nπ 5 and n(1-π) 5 nπ < 5 or n(1-π) < 5 n Not discussed in this chapter

15 Z Test for Proportion in Terms of Number in Category of Interest An equivalent form to the last slide, but in terms of the number in the category of interest, X: Z STAT X nπ nπ(1π) X 5 and n-x 5 Hypothesis Tests for X X < 5 or n-x < 5 Not discussed in this chapter

16 Example: Z Test for Proportion A marketing company claims that it receives 8% responses from its mailing. To test this claim, a random sample of 500 were surveyed with 25 responses. Test at the a = 0.05 significance level. Check: n π = (500)(.08) = 40 n(1-π) = (500)(.92) = 460

17 Z Test for Proportion: Solution H 0 : π = 0.08 H 1 : π 0.08 a = 0.05 n = 500, p = 0.05 ZSTAT Test Statistic: p π π(1π) n (1.08) Critical Values: ± 1.96 Decision: Reject Reject Reject H 0 at a = 0.05 Conclusion: z There is sufficient evidence to reject the company s claim of 8% response rate.

18 p-value Solution Calculate the p-value and compare to a (For a two-tail test the p-value is always two-tail) (continued) Reject H 0 Do not reject H 0 Reject H 0 a/2 =.025 a/2 = p-value = : P(Z 2.47) P(Z 2.47) 2(0.0068) Z = Z = 2.47 Reject H 0 since p-value = < a = 0.05

19 Potential Pitfalls and Ethical Considerations Use randomly collected data to reduce selection biases Do not use human subjects without informed consent Choose the level of significance, α, and the type of test (one-tail or two-tail) before data collection Report all pertinent findings including both statistical significance and practical importance

20 Chapter Summary Addressed hypothesis testing methodology Performed Z Test for the mean (σ known) Discussed critical value and p value approaches to hypothesis testing Performed one-tail and two-tail tests

21 Chapter Summary Performed t test for the mean (σ unknown) Performed Z test for the proportion Discussed pitfalls and ethical issues (continued)

22 EXERCISE

23 Stationery Store Sebuah toko alat tulis ingin mengestimasi rata-rata harga retail dari kartu ucapan yang terdapat dalam gudangnya. Sampel acak yang terdiri dari 100 kartu ucapan mengindikasikan bahwa harga rata-ratanya adalah $2,55 dengan simpangan baku $0,44. Adakah bukti bahwa harga retail rata-rata dari populasi kartu ucapan tersebut berbeda dari $2,50? (Gunakan tingkat signifikansi 0,05.)

24 Federal Communications Commission Pada tahun ini, Federal Communications Commission melaporkan bahwa rata-rata waktu tunggu untuk perbaikan bagi konsumen Verizon adalah 36,5 jam. Dalam upaya untuk meningkatkan pelayanan, sebuah proses pelayanan perbaikan dikembangkan. Proses baru ini, diimplementasikan pada 100 perbaikan sebagai sampel, dan menghasilkan rata-rata sampel 34,5 jam dan simpangan baku 11,7 jam. Apakah terdapat bukti bahwa rata-rata populasi kurang dari 36,5 jam? (Gunakan tingkat signifikansi 0,05.)

25 Jobseekers Dari orang responden berusia 24 hingga 35, 65% menyatakan bahwa mereka lebih memilih untuk mencari pekerjaan di daerah dimana saya ingin bertempat tinggal dari pada mencari pekerjaan terbaik yang dapat saya temukan, tempat tinggal adalah prioritas kedua. Pada tingkat signifikansi 0,05, apakah terdapat bukti bahwa proporsi semua pencari kerja muda usia 24 hingga 35 yang lebih memilih Mencari pekerjaan di daerah dimana saya ingin bertempat tinggal dari pada Mencari pekerjaan terbaik yang dapat saya temukan, tempat tinggal adalah prioritas kedua tidak sama dengan 60%?

26 THANK YOU