Chapter 15. Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management. Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown. Lecture Presentation Software to accompany

Transkripsi

1 Lecture Presentation Software to accompany Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management Seventh Edition by Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown Chapter 15

2 Chapter 15 Technical Analysis Questions to be answered: 1. How does technical analysis differ from fundamental analysis? 2. What are the underlying assumptions of technical analysis? 3. What major assumption causes a difference between technical analysis and the efficient market hypothesis? 4. What are the major advantages of technical analysis compared to fundamental analysis? 5. What are the major challenges to the assumptions of technical analysis and its rules? 6. What is the logic for the major contrary opinion rules used by technicians? 7. What are some of the significant rules used by technicians who want to follow the smart money and what is the logic of those rules? 8. What are the breadth of market measures and what are they intended to indicate? 9. What are the types of price movements postulated in the Dow Theory and how are they used by a technician? 2

3 Questions to be answered: 10.Why do technicians consider the volume of trading important and how do they use it in their analysis? 11.What are support and resistance levels, how are they identified, and how are they used by technicians? 12.What is the purpose of moving average lines and how does the technician use one or several of them to detect major changes in trends? 13.What is the rationale behind the relative strength line for an industry or a stock and how is it interpreted? 14.How are bar charts different from point-and-figure charts? 15.What are some uses of technical analysis in foreign security markets? 16.How is technical analysis used when analyzing bond markets? 3

4 ANALISIS SEKURITAS Over valued Fundamental (rasional) Nilai saham Beli/jual HARGA Teknikal Under valued 4

5 Underlying Assumptions of Technical Analysis 1. Nilai pasar beberapa barang dan jasa ditentukan hanya oleh (solely by) interaksi PENAWARAN dan PERMINTAAN 2. Supply and demand are governed by numerous factors, both rational and irrational 3. Disregarding minor fluctuations, the prices for individual securities and the overall value of the market tend to move in trends, which persist for appreciable lengths of time 4. Prevailing trends change in reaction to shifts in supply and demand relationships and these shifts can be detected in the action of the market 5

6 Advantages of Technical Analysis Tdk tergantung pd laporan keuangan akuntansi Problema dg laporan akuntansi: 1. Kurangnya (Lack) inf diperlukan olh para analis 2. GAAP mengijinkan persh unt memilih prosedur akuntansi, yg mengakibatkan sulitnya membandingkan laporan dg persh lainnya 3. Faktor non-kuantitatif tdk dimunculkan dlm laporan keuangan 6

7 Advantages of Technical Analysis Analis fundamental hrs memproses inf baru dan dg cepat menentukan nilai intrinsik baru, sebaliknya analis teknikal harus mengakui suatu pergerakan (harga) unt ekuilibrium baru Ahli teknikal berdagang ketika suatu pergeakan menuju ekuilibrium baru terjadi tetapi analis fundamental menemukan sekuritas MURAH yg mungkin tdk menyesuaikan harganya secepatnya 7

8 Challenges to Technical Analysis Assumsi analisis teknikal Uji empiris Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) menujukkan bhw harga tdk bergerak membentuk trend Aturan perdagangan teknikal Pengalaman yg lau mungkin tdk akan terulang Pola mungkin menjadi prediksi otomatis (self-fulfilling prophecies) Suatu aturan keberhasilan akan menguntungkan investor pengikut dan menjadi kurang berhasil (bg pengikut lain) Aturan memerlukan kesepahaman (great deal) keputusan subyektif 8

9 Technical Trading Rules and Indicators Siklus saham mungkin berlangsung melawati puncak dan pangkal (peak and trough) Analasislah siklus harga saham beikut dan kita akan menunjukkan kanal trend (Trend Channel), kanal trend datar (flat trend channel), kanal trend menurun (Declining Trend Channel), dan indikasi tentang kapan analis teknikal hendak melakukan perdagangan 9

10 Typical Stock Market Cycle Stock Price Exhibit

11 Typical Stock Market Cycle Stock Price Exhibit 16.2 Declining Trend Channel Peak Flat Trend Channel Sell Point Rising Trend Channel Declining Buy Point Trend Trough Channel Buy Point Trough 11

12 Contrary-Opinion Beberapa analis mengandalkan pd atuaran yg dibangun dari premis bhw mayoritas investor adl salah sbg mana pasar mendekati puncak dan pangkal (peaks and troughs) Analis teknikal mencoba unt menentukan apakah investor scr kuat optimis atau pesimis (bullish or bearish) dan kemudian berdagang dlm arah yg belawanan Posisi2 ini memiliki banyak indikator 12

13 Contrary-Opinion Rules Posisi kas Reksa dana (Mutual fund) Saldo kredit dlm rekening broker Pendapat penasehat investasi Volume OTC versus NYSE Rasio jual/beli (put/call ratio) Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Pedagang mendatang optimis pd masa depan indeks saham 13

14 Follow the Smart Money Indikator-indikator yg menunjukkan perilaku investor canggih (sophisticated) Indeks kepercayaan Barron Peningkatan hasil (yield spread)t-bill - Eurodollar Short sales oleh para spesialis Saldo debit dlm rekening broker (utang margin) 14

15 Other Market Indicators Peningkatan pasar (Breadth of market) Peningkatan-penuunan (Advance-decline) Indeks diffusi Utang jk pendek Saham2 di atas rata-rata bergerak 200- harinya Rasio Block uptick-downtick 15

16 Stock Price and Volume Techniques Teori Dow aturan berdagang tertua 1. Trend utama adl seperti ombak (tides) di lautan 2. Trend Menengah tampak seperti ombak (resemble waves) 3. Pergerakan jangka pendek adl seperti ombak kecil (ripples) Pentingnya volume Rasio volume papan atas-papan bawah (upside-downside volume) Level pendukung dan resistan Garis rata-rata bergerak 16

17 Stock Price and Volume Techniques Rasio relatif-kekuatan (Relative-strength/ (RS) Bagi saham individual dan grup industri Pembuatan Bagan batang (Bar charting) Bagan indikator Berganda Bagan titik-dan-gambar (Point-and-figure charts) Perasaan keseluruhan dai suatu konsensus dr banyak indikator teknikal 17

18 Technical Analysis of Foreign Markets Beberapa pasar saham asing Analisis teknikal kurs pertukaran asing Analisis teknikal dr pasar obligasi 18

19 The Internet Investments Online

20 End of Chapter 15 Technical Analysis 20

21 Future topics Chapter 16 Equity Portfolio Management Strategies 21