KEMANA BERINVESTASI? STRATEGI INVESTASI

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Glenna Tanudjaja
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1 STRATEGI INVESTASI MENGAPA BERINVESTASI? Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal dan Lembaga Keuangan DEPARTEMEN KEUANGAN REPUBLIK INDONESIA Untuk melindungi kekayaan (aset) terhadap pengaruh inflasi Untuk mendapatkan keuntungan yang lebih besar dimasa yang akan datang Untuk mengantisipasi ketidakpastian pendapatan dimasa yang akan datang COMMON MISCONCEPTION KEMANA BERINVESTASI? Investasi pada saham hampir sama dengan judi Efek Pendapatan Tetap (obligasi) memiliki pendapatan yang tetap Produk reksa dana adalah produk bank Produkreksadanamiripdengan deposito Physical Assets Land Property Vehicles Precious metals Capital market Financial Assets Money market 1

2 INVESTASI DI PASAR UANG Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI) Deposito Berjangka (Time Deposits) Commercial Papers Promissory Notes Obligasi yang jatuh tempo kurang dari 1 (satu) tahun INVESTASI DI PASAR MODAL Saham (Stocks) Obligasi (Bonds) Reksa Dana (Investment Funds) Derivatives RISK/RETURN TRADEOFF RISK/RETURN TRADEOFF Risk / Return Characteristics Return Low Risk Low Return High Risk High Potential Return Return Reksa Dana Obligasi Saham Deposito Standard Deviation (Risk) Risk 2

3 RISK FROM AN INVESTORS PERSPECTIVE HOW INVESTORS CAN MANAGE RISKS Equities Business Risk Don t put all eggs in one basket, i.e. diversify Investors Bonds and Cash Issuer Specific Risk Credit Risk Liquidity Risk Operational Risk Legal Risk Take a long-term view Do not market time, try dollar cost averaging instead Market Risk Political risk FX risk Choose the level of risk they are comfortable with Economic Risk Reksa Dana Perhaps the the best best advice... Do Do not not invest invest in in anything you you don t don t understand! DIVERSIFICATION TIPE-TIPE INVESTOR $1,500 $1,000 Mid-1970s Recession Diversified Portfolio Stocks $1,149 $1,014 $1,500 $1, Market Crash Diversified Portfolio Stocks $1,324 $1,227 Conservative Investors Moderate Investors Aggressive Investors $500 Dec 1972 Dec 1973 Dec 1974 Jun 1976 $500 Jun 1987 Jun 1988 Jun 1989 Dec 1990 Diversified Portfolio: 35% stocks, 40% bonds, 25% Treasury bills. Hypothetical value of $1,000 invested at month-end December 1972 and June 1987, respectively Source: Ibbotson Associates. 3

4 SEBELUM BERINVENTASI STRATEGI INVESTASI Tujuan investasi Keamanan Dana Keamanan Dana dan Pendapatan Pendapatan dan Pertumbuhan Pertumbuhan Jangka waktu investasi Buy and Hold Strategy Active Strategy Tingkat risiko yang sanggup ditanggung Keadaan keuangan Pengetahuan Tentang investasi secara umum Tentang produk yang akan dibeli BUY AND HOLD BUY AND HOLD Conservative Investors Moderate Investors Stock 30% Bond 40% Stock 50% Bond 30% Money Market 30% Money Market 20% 4

5 BUY AND HOLD ACTIVE STRATEGY Aggressive Investors Assets Allocation (Where) Bond 20% Securities Selection (Which) Market Timing (When) Money Market 10% Stock 70% MAKING THE RIGHT ASSETS ALLOCATION DECISION ASSETS ALLOCATION Determinants of Portfolio Performance Stock 100% 90% 80% 70% Agg 60% 50% 40% 94% Mod 30% 20% Con 10% 4% 2% 0% Securities Selection Asset Allocation Market Timing

6 ASSETS ALLOCATION ASSETS ALLOCATION Bond Money Market Agg Agg Mod Mod Con Con SECURITIES SELECTION BIG CAP VS SMALL CAP Big cap vs. small cap stocks BIG CAP SMALL CAP Growth vs. value stocks Short-term vs. long term bonds Fixed rate vs. variable rate Focus Company Characteristics Emphasis on large and well-established companies Reliable sales and dividends Emphasis on small, emerging, and start-up companies Sales and earnings fluctuate, dividends are minor Risks Usually diversified, so risk is low Un-diversified, so volatility of earnings and risk is high Return Moderate returns that include dividends No dividends but potentially high or low capital appreciation 6

7 GROWTH VS VALUE LONG TERM VS SHORT TERM BOND GROWTH VALUE Focus Company Characteristics Emphasis on growing companies High P/E ratio Emphasis on companies whose market value are low relative to earnings, dividends, or assets Low P/E ratio Price Sensitivity LONG TERM Higher SHORT TERM Lower Risks Tend to be more volatile Tend to be less volatile Return High cap appreciation with little or no dividends Moderate or low capital appreciations with high dividends FIXED RATE VS VARIABLE RATE VALUASI OBLIGASI 4 Analisa berdasarkan prinsip Time Value of Money (TVM) 4 Harga obligasi: Fixed Variable V b = Σ INT (1 + k d ) t + M (1 + k d ) N Sensitivity to interest rate Higher Lower K d N = imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor = lama jatuh tempo obligasi INT = jumlah pembayaran bunga M = nilai pari obligasi t = 1 sampai dengan N 7

8 CONTOH SOAL MARKET TIMING Perusahaan XYZ menerbitkan obligasi sebesar Rp. 100 milyar dengan tingkat bunga tetap 12% pertahun dan jatuh tempo dalam 3 tahun. Tingkat imbal hasil yang diharapkan investor atas obligasi ini adalah 10%. Berapakah harga pasar obligasi tersebut? V b = 12 M (1 + 10%) M (1 + 10%) M + (1 + 10%) 3 = Rp atau % 100 M (1 + 10%) 3 Mengapa pasar bisa naik turun? Pasar akan naik apabila banyak investor yang menempatkan dananya di pasar modal Pasar akan turun apabila banyak investor yang menarik dananya dari pasar modal MARKET CYCLE EARLY RECOVERY Big cap growth stocks Long term bonds Recession 4 Small cap growth stocks Intermediate bonds Early Recovery 1 Inflasi rendah atau dalam trend yang menurun Ekonomi berkembang tapi belum membawa pengaruh terhadap naiknya inflasi Investasi di: Stagflation 3 2 Late Recovery Small cap growth stocks Intermediate bonds Big cap value stocks Short term bonds Small cap value stocks Intermediate bonds 8

9 LATE RECOVERY STAGFLATION Inflasi mulai bergerak naik Ekonomi berkembang pesat Investasi di: Inflasi naik dengan tajam Ekonomi mulai bergerak lambat Investasi di: Small cap value stocks Large cap value stocks Intermediate term bonds Short term bonds RECESSION PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION FOR EACH STAGE Inflasi menurun tajam Ekonomi masih bergerak sangat lambat Investasi di: Large cap growth stocks Long Term bonds Early Recovery Late Recovery Stagflation Conservative Moderate Aggressive 50% stocks 40% bonds 10% cash 30% stocks 20% bonds 50% cash 10% stocks 10% bonds 80% cash 70% stocks 25% bonds 5% cash 50% stocks 10% bonds 40% cash 30% stocks 25% bonds 45% cash 90% stocks 10% bonds 0% cash 70% stocks 0% bonds 30% cash 50% stocks 10% bonds 40% cash Recession 15% stocks 65% bonds 20% cash 40% stocks 45% bonds 15% cash 60% stocks 30% bonds 10% cash 9

10 150% 125% 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% -25% -50% -75% Small Company Stocks MARKET TIMING & VOLATILITY 1-Year Holding Periods 5-Year Holding Periods 20-Year Holding Periods Compound Annual Return 12.1% 10.2% 5.5% 3.8% Large Company Stocks Each bar shows the range of compound annual returns for each asset class over the period Reduction of Risk over Time Government Bonds Treasury Bills Source: IbbotsonAssociates DOLLAR COST AVERAGING Definisi Menempatkan dana secara bertahap pada suatu portofolio untuk menghindari risiko fluktuasi harga dalam jangka pendek Tujuan Mengurangi risiko investasi Mendapatkan hasil yang lebih baik DOLLAR COST AVERAGING STRATEGI INVESTASI NAB Penempatan Dana Jumlah UP Hasil Investasi x = x = x = NAB Penempatan Dana Jumlah UP Hasil Investasi x = x = x =

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