Working Paper DAMPAK UPAH TERHADAP PRODUKTIVITAS DAN INFLASI: STUDI SEKTORAL DAN REGIONAL

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1 Working Paper DAMPAK UPAH TERHADAP PRODUKTIVITAS DAN INFLASI: STUDI SEKTORAL DAN REGIONAL

2 Abstract In this paper we observe three key issues. First, we measure the effectiveness of regional minimum wage in affecting actual wage determination, productivity, and inflation level in Indonesia. Furthermore, we expand our analysis on significant factors affecting wage determination, productivity, and inflation level as our second objective. Finally, we identify the existence of a threshold level of minimum wage in relation to inflation level. For the abovementioned purposes, we apply spatial lag model (SAR) and spatial error model (SEM) to address the first and the second issue to provincial level data of Indonesia during of Hence, following Hansen (1999) and Caner and Hansen (2004), we apply dynamic panel threshold model to extract the threshold level, given endogeneity issue. Correspondingly, it is evident that there is a nonlinear relationship between wage and inflation in Indonesia and we suggest that any minimum wage increase above 12.7 % will significantly accelerate inflation rate and under which an insignificant relationship exist. Furthermore, we show that actual wage determination in manufacturing and trade sector rely mainly on minimum wage, inflation, and GDP growth while the increase of workers productivity is a product of education and training. Therefore, we suggest that an integrated social policy is a key to boost workers welfare. Keywords: minimum wages rate, inflation rate,spatial lag model (SAR), spatial error model (SEM), dynamic panel threshold model. JEL CLASSIFICATION: E 24, E 31 2

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4 NO. PROPINSI U Growth Growth Growth M 1 D.I. Aceh Sumatera Utara Sumatera Barat Riau Kepulauan Riau Jambi Sumatera Selatan Bangka Belitung Bengkulu Lampung Jawa Barat DKI Jakarta Banten Jawa Tengah D.I. Yogyakarta Jawa Timur Bali N T B N T T Kalimantan Barat Kalimantan Selatan Kalimantan Tengah Kalimantan Timur Maluku Maluku Utara Gorontalo Sulawesi Utara Sulawesi Tenggara Sulawesi Tengah Sulawesi Selatan Sulawesi Barat Irian Jaya Irian Jaya Barat UMP Rata-rata Growth UMP Rata-rata biasa Growth UMP Rata-rata tertimbang Inflasi

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10 y Wy X... (1) y X 10

11 y X... (2) W... (3) W μ 11

12 W ij t ij, t it it it ij, t. M. W W min Y P (11) ρ 12

13 P ij t ij, t it it it ij, t ro, M. Pro W SC TR (12) P it it it it it i, t M. P W Loan Y (13) ρ Produktivitas i,t = α + βws i,t + δps i,t + ε i,t (14) 13

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15 Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Semua Sektor SAR Variable FE RE FE SEM RE Spatial Autocorrelation Inflasi Upah Minimum Provinsi PDRB (2.96) (16.52) (76.39) (19.95) (3.52) (16.59) (76.41) (19.59) (37.90) (32.73) (139.45) (33.77) (33.51) (33.28) (139.28) (33.59) R-Squared dummy Regional V Observasi Hausman Test (Prob) LM Test Robust LM Test no spatial lag Robust LM Test no spatial error Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10% (0.028)

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17 Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Sektor Pertanian SAR SEM Variable FE RE FE RE Spatial Autocorrelation Inflasi (CPI) Upah Minimum Provinsi PDRB (4.88) (61.51) (171.46) (67.65) (5.08) (62.20) (173.39) (68.35) (5.24) (67.88) (201.86) (73.23) (20.73) (100.03) (219.5) (87.57) R-Squared Observasi Hausman Test (Prob) LM Test Robust LM Test no spatial lag Robust LM Test no spatial error Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10% 17

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19 Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Sektor Industri SAR SEM Variable FE RE FE RE Spatial Autocorrelation Inflasi (CPI) Upah Minimum Provinsi PDRB (1.86) (10.36) (127.82) (18.26) (3.43) (6.98) (119.69) (19.67) (25.45) (13.89) (219.27) (25.69) (33.90) (19.29) (236.76) (29.32) R-Squared dummy Regional Observasi Hausman Test (Prob) LM Test Robust LM Test no spatial lag Robust LM Test no spatial error V (0.000) Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10% 19

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21 Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Sektor Perdagangan SAR SEM Variable FE RE FE RE Spatial Autocorrelation Inflasi Upah Minimum Provinsi PDRB (5.28) (29.54) (162.63) (23.88) (5.65) (29.61) (162.45) (23.59) (16.47) (39.31) (257.91) (40.05) (37.40) (53.54) (277.54) (45.87) R-Squared dummy Regional dummy Waktu Observasi Hausman Test (Prob) LM Test Robust LM Test no spatial lag Robust LM Test no spatial error V V (0.000) Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10% 21

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23 Dampak UMP Terhadap Produktivitas Pekerja SAR SEM Variable FE RE FE RE Spatial Autocorrelation Schooling Training Opennes UMP ** (6.50) (0.87) (4.04) (3.01) (0.41) (5.82) (0.835) (4.21) (3.17) (0.55) (7.26) (0.51) (6.71) (3.28) (0.48) (6.76) (2.08) (6.62) (3.57) (0.37) R-Squared Observasi Hausman Test (Prob) LM Test Robust LM Test no spatial lag Robust LM Test no spatial error Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10% (0.87)

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25 Upah & Produktifitas: Peran Pangsa Pendapatan Pekerja vs Non Pekerja Variable FE RE Labour Income Share Non Labour Income Share Constant ** * (1.977) (1.622) (0.16) (1.059) (0.15) (1.707) R-Squared Hausman Test Chi Squared Prob > Chi Squared Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10% 25

26 Variable Spatial Autocorrelation Kredit Opennes UMP Nilai Tukar * (20.42) (5.67) (-3.54) (5.56) (1.42) (23.78) (3.19) (-4.23) (7.13) (0.74) (137.51) (4.22) (-3.85) (7.44) (0.89) ( ) (3.04) (-4.33) (6.73) (1.09) R-Squared dummy Regional Observasi Hausman Test (Prob) LM Test Robust LM Test no spatial lag Robust LM Test no spatial error Dampak UMP Terhadap Inflasi SAR Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10% FE RE V (0.00) FE SEM RE 26

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28 Inflasi (%) UMP (%) 28

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30 β β Nilai threshold UMP terhadap inflasi Inflasi inertia Kredit Nilai Tukar Konstanta R-Squared Observasi Threshold UMP Terhadap Inflasi α 12.73% Pengaruh UMP terhadap inflasi β1 β (0.0072) (11.36) Pengaruh variabel lainnya terhadap inflasi (7.714) (3.471) (5.612) (1.017) Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10% 30

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